David Dennis Jr.’s overreactions: My 4 most wrong preseason takes (so far)

Bad takes. 

It’s become a buzzphrase for a while now, as analysts are asked to spout predictions faster than ever. Undoubtedly, in the process, we’ll be wrong. We don’t even have to tell you, because someone is going to grab the clip when their team outperforms our predictions. (See also: Knicks fans who couldn’t wait to drag everyone who picked San Antonio in the Finals). 

Most of the time, it’s in good fun. There’s just an understanding that sports are pretty much impossible to predict, and if you make a prediction within reason, you’ll get some grace. Some.

Thankfully, I don’t take wrong predictions personally. As someone who is going to go out of his way to remind you when I’m right, it’s only fair that I take it on the chin when I’m wrong.

I will say this, though: There are two exceptions to this rule that I wish most people would understand when trying to gotcha someone for a take.

1. Injuries. Boy, this grinds my gears. If someone has a prediction that gets derailed by an injury, the take is null and void. Last season, for instance, I had the bold prediction that the Rockets were going to destroy the Lakers, who didn’t have Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves. When the Lakers won the series, people bombarded me with “eat crow.” However, Kevin Durant was out most of the series and never really healthy. The take is void! “They would have lost anyway” doesn’t fly, either. These are the rules. Slams gavel.

2. A player gets better. So, someone says Player A is a fringe All-Star their second year, then that player becomes an All-NBA player in Year 5. You can’t go back and clown the take, unless the person said Player A had hit his ceiling or would never get better. That’s different. But the idea that a player getting better is something to use against a take is the worst. This, too, is non-negotiable.

Now that we’re clear on all of that, I want to put myself out there and reflect on some wrong (so far!) predictions and takes I had after the preseason. 

I regret nothing. 

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Take: “I’m not sure Fred VanVleet will make that big of a difference for the Rockets”

It was clear that Houston missed VanVleet badly last season after tearing his ACL in September. He’s a natural leader and could surely help address some of the team’s issues, especially in the clutch — games within five points in the final five minutes — where the Rockets were 15-16 and had the worst turnover rate in the league. But I had one issue: Could VanVleet, coming off of an injury, elevate a first-round exit team to a true contender? That seemed like a lot to ask.

But here’s what is actually happening. VanVleet isn’t just orchestrating the offense masterfully, with a 4.9 assist-to-turnover ratio; his presence is also giving Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson more comfort in their respective roles. They aren’t as concerned with manufacturing offense as ball-handlers and cobbling together a point guard position. This has freed them up to maximize their chemistry and do what they do best. Şengün is looking more like the Baby Jokic moniker he’d been getting but couldn’t live up to in the playoffs.

As a result, we’re looking at a Rockets team that has emerged as a real deal contender in the West.

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Take: “Giannis and Miami looks like a perfect match”

OK, let me be fair to myself here: I was so out on this move when it happened. Giannis Antetokounmpo/Bam Adebayo looked redundant. There wasn’t enough wing defense, and so much of the offense seemed reliant on aging guys who can’t stop anyone.

Then, the preseason happened. In particular, a Heat vs. (Kawhi-less, preseason) Toronto Raptors game where Giannis had the entire Heat offense on a string. He had a million assists in seven minutes, and it all was clicking. I walked away thinking Giannis would be the MVP. It was my fault for believing in a team based on what I saw in the preseason. But still, did you see how great Giannis looked?

Then, the regular season happened. All the concerns most people had came to light. They’re clunky offensively. Giannis and Bam seem redundant. Andrew Wiggins is averaging less than nine points a game. Klay Thompson, who has heated up over the last three games, struggled early. And Tim Hardaway Jr. is making less than 25% of his 3s.

Then there’s the defense, that was supposed to be better. The starting lineup is one of the worst defensive lineups in the league. It has the NBA’s seventh-worst net rating, and its 1.18 points allowed per possession is fifth-worst. Klay has looked slow and is targeted every night. Luka and Anthony Edwards both put up 40-plus on them.

I was going to pile on more, but they did pull off what felt like a must-win game against the Clippers on Wednesday, coming back from 20 down. So kudos to that. One problem: THEY HAD A MUST-WIN GAME AGAINST THE CLIPPERS WHERE THEY HAD TO COME BACK FROM 20 DOWN.

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Take: “Brandin Podziemski is not going to work for the Warriors”

I’m not sure there’s a player more clowned and meme’d by his own fan base than Podz. The Warriors guard spent most of the offseason being the butt of jokes about how he was trying to mimic Stephen Curry. It also reflected a broader skepticism about whether he was a long-term fit for the squad.

In the offseason, the Warriors re-signed Podz for five years, $110 million, signaling their commitment to him.

So far, it looks like a great investment. Podz has looked more comfortable in his role, while potential Rookie of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg has taken pressure off the roster overall. He has the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team, and the Warriors have a 74 percent effective field goal percentage off his passes, which ranks among the league’s best.

It’s a sign that he’s settled into being an engine for the offense. A lot of factors contribute to the Warriors’ renewed energy, but Podz’s contributions shouldn’t be overlooked.

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Take: “The Blazers are going to be a disaster” 

Admit it. You had no clue why the Blazers traded for Ja Morant, either. Morant’s stock had fallen considerably, and there weren’t many suitors for his massive contract. He was injury-prone, and a trade to a team that already had Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday just didn’t make a lick of sense.

But the Blazers were absolutely cooking with Morant to start the season.

They’re currently third in offensive efficiency for the season. Morant, for his credit, seems to have gotten his floater back. He was shooting 58 percent from the paint, 10 percentage points higher than last season. And (small sample size, of course!) he’s making two out of every three floaters he takes. Two years ago, he wasn’t even making half of them. He isn’t forcing anything and is putting in effort on defense. In short, he’s been exactly the type of player Portland had been hoping for.

Then the other thing we’d been worried about happened: Morant became part of that slew of unfortunate injuries. It was one of the injuries that bummed me out most, because it derailed one of the best stories of the season.

That said, the Blazers have been good all season and look like a team with all the parts to sneak into the top six in the West.

A lot of that is Toumani Camara, who is making a case for best 3-and-D guy in the league. He guards everybody and can’t miss from beyond the arc; 82 percent of his shots are threes, and he’s shooting 47 percent. It helps that they’re wide open, too. He’s averaging 8 feet of separation on his threes, second-most behind Stephon Castle, whose defenders are daring him to shoot. I started the season writing off the Blazers, but they look like they’ll be a pesky playoff team.